How To Invest In a Secular Bear Market

Bull and bear in front of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Our guest post is by Tony he invests in stocks, commodities, and currencies and blogs at A Young Investor. 


Before we begin, let's define what a secular bear market is. A secular bear market is a market in which, after more than a decade, is essentially flat. For example, stocks experienced a secular bear market from 1905 - 1921 (17 years), 1966-1981 (16 years), and from 2000 - present (13 years so far). So how does one invest in a secular bear market? Many of the strategies that work in secular bull markets (prolonged bull markets e.g. 1981-2000) don't work in secular bear markets.

Buy & Hold

Buy and hold is popular among long term and mom & pop investors. Buy it today, stuff it under your mattress, hold it for 20 years, and voila! You've just made 10% year-over-year! While buy and hold is great if we're in a secular bull market, such a strategy is doomed to fail in secular bear markets. Since the market is flat for a prolonged period of time, your investment will also be flat during those 10-20 years. Even if you were to buy on the dips, you would still only make a meager couple of percents year-over-year. As a result, only short term - medium term investors and traders make money in secular bear markets. But not all short-medium term investors and traders make money in secular bear markets.

Trend Following

Trend followers, investors who follow the trend (buy when the market starts rising and sell when the market starts falling) perform extremely poorly during secular bear markets. The whole idea behind trend following is that since one cannot predict which way the market will go, it's better to let the market start moving in one direction and then ride the wave. Such a strategy works well in secular bull markets when trends are long and obvious. However, this strategy is not suitable for secular bear markets because neither are the trends obvious nor are they long. Secular bear markets are characterized by short, choppy market movements, which is why trend followers get washed out very easily. E.g. they buy when the market rises, then the market falls, they sell, then the market rises, they buy..... As you can see, trend followers in secular bear markets die by the proverbal "death by a thousands cuts". So how can an investor generate decent returns in a secular bear market? Easy

Contrarian Investing

Contrarian investors (the polar opposite of trend followers) make the most money in secular bear markets. Here's how they do it.

1. Identify the long term cycle. Is it a secular bear or a bull? This is easy to identify, because secular bear cycles usually last 15 years and secular bull cycles usually last 17 years.
2. Identify the line of resistance. In a secular bear market, the line of resistance (the price that the markets won't exceed until the secular bear market is over) is usually the market peak at the beginning of the secular bear market.
3. Whenever market sentiment reaches an extreme (based on a historical perspective) and prices fall extremely fast, it's time to buy. Think of market extremity like an elastic band - the more you stretch it to one side, the more it will rebound towards the other. Buy and hold until the market reaches the line of resistance stated in Step #2.
4. Repeat the above steps until the secular bear market is over. Note: once the secular bull market resumes, continue with your previous buy & hold or trend following strategy.

Check out Tony's great post on The Economy & The Market Are Falling Apart – Warren Buffett.

Top Tips to Buying an Investment Property to Improve and Sell for Profit

Property market (Photo credit: Alan Cleaver)

There are a number of ways to invest in property. You could purchase a buy-to-let in an up-and-coming area, rent it out to cover the mortgage while its value increases and then sell it on for a profit. Alternatively, you could buy a property off-plan and then sell it at its increased market value when it’s completed. Or, if you’re ready for a project and have the time, energy and ability to cope with stress, you could buy a property that needs work but has bags of potential and sell it for a substantial profit. This method of property investment is risky and requires a lot more involvement than simply purchasing a house or apartment but, if planned and executed well, you could be rewarded for your efforts with a hefty return on your investment. Here are our top tips to finding and buying that perfect development property so that you can start making money!

Go to a property auction

Many rundown homes are sold at auction so it’s a great place to snap up that perfect development property. Plus, buying at auction avoids the lengthy property purchase procedures, which can be costly both in terms of time and if it falls through at the last minute. When that hammer falls, the property is yours. To find out when an auction is occurring, speak to a local estate agent or check the property pages of local newspapers.

View a potential property first - and do your research

Whether you’re buying through an agent or at auction, it is essential to view the property first and thoroughly examine it. Consider taking a builder, architect or surveyor with you to figure out just what will need doing, how much it will cost, and how much you could possibly make. Using software such as the Cordell Estimator V5 can help you estimate total project costs. If you decide to bid, research the asking prices of properties on the market in a similar condition so you have an idea how much it’s worth.

Check the legalities

There are certain legalities which could affect the value of the property and what work you’re permitted to carry out. For example, if the building is listed there are a number of constraints on what changes you can make.

Making financial arrangements

If you’re buying at auction, you generally need a 10% deposit to be paid on the day, with a grace period of 28 days to come up with the remaining funds. Whatever you do, don’t buy a property at auction without having secured a mortgage if you need one. If you can’t find the rest of the money not only will you lose the property but you’ll also forfeit the deposit you’ve handed over.

Securing a property

If buying through an agent, the process should be familiar to you. Buying at auction is a different kettle of fish. It can be daunting but just remember not to go over the figure you have in your head from your research or you’ll risk placing yourself in financial difficulties. If you’ve done your homework and keep your nerve, you’ll hopefully emerge with an investment property with plenty of potential!

From-Home Workers Demand More Virtual Office Spaces in Sydney

BAW's Home Office (Photo credit: bayareabaw)

If there’s any industry in the urban Sydney area that has seen tremendous growth in the last few months, it’s the virtual office industry. After all, this only makes sense, since business is always booming within the heart of Sydney, but it is only recently that much of it has been based out of virtual offices. The huge majority of companies still run out of traditional offices, of course, but virtual offices are creeping up through the ranks and gradually increasing in percentage.

From-home workers such as freelancers, startup owners, and other entrepreneurs have started to use virtual offices more and more, almost more frequently than the available amount of spaces can afford. More virtual office spaces are being created every day by the providers, and yet there never seems to be enough for the clients that need them. This demand is good for the virtual office business, of course, and is allowing them to make more improvements and advances.

This business sector has taken off tremendously due in part to this advent of new improvements within many virtual office setups and the continued cataloging and availability of these offices around the Sydney area. There hasn’t been much of a lack when it comes to virtual offices in Sydney, but now more than ever there are more users wanting their own virtual offices, and therefore more must become available.

On the topic of virtual offices in Sydney, a spokesperson from a said: “The valuable service that is made available to just about anyone through virtual offices has to be made even more widespread and accessible. It would be a huge waste if all those people who want their own virtual office setup were turned down any longer due to insufficient options. That’s why we’re trying to expand our business and make those offices available in some of the further areas of Sydney.”

Sydney’s economic systems and business environment can certainly take more virtual offices, as it’s a city that continues to develop and grow every year. There’s constantly more being done to stimulate the Sydney economy and promote business development in every area of the city. Virtual office companies are just working to match the demand and the opportunities.

And entrepreneurs and freelancers are jumping to take advantage of those new options. “I can finally set up an office I can afford,” said one freelancer, “and still be able to get things done around the home. I don’t need much as far as an office setup goes, really just somewhere to take clients so that they know I’m a professional business person. My virtual office allows me to meet with them, take their calls, and receive mail from them at an official office location, and they never even have to realize that I work from home at all.”

That’s just the review of one of the many clients. Others when questioned have said the same things, claiming that the virtual office setups help them to do more serious business and work in a more official capacity. There are many different purposes that virtual offices are used for, but the numbers show that a huge percentage of them are entrepreneurs just starting out and freelancers needing a professional business front.

The Central Business District of Sydney is the main location where virtual offices are now offered for rent, but in all the surrounding areas there have been new virtual offices opened and an increased amount of office space available. Supply is sometimes short due to the demand being so large in areas like Parramatta, Chatswood, and Penrith, but in the very near surrounding areas the demand is smaller, the prices are cheaper, and there are many more options.

This is a guest post by financial writer Paul Groberts.

Powerful Ways Private Health Insurance Can Save You Money

 (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)

Looking for a way to balance your budget and save money on your health insurance cover?  The cost of health care is increasing every year and a lot of people do not know about all the options available for saving money when it comes to their health care. To start the ball rolling, there are several things that you are required to do, and specific information you need to be aware of. Taking the right action will help to make sure that you and your family will get the right benefits and payments.

Some of the benefits of having private health cover include:

• You have the ability to be treated by the doctor of your choice. 
• You can expect less time waiting for elective surgery. 
• You will be in control of when your treatment takes place and where.
• Government funds are freed up as the strain on the public hospital system is lessened and hospitals can be upgraded
• You can have access to services that are not listed under the Medicare system like alternative therapies, chiropractic, and dietary advice to name a few.

There is a good deal of federal government initiatives all set up to encourage more people to take out private health insurance. In short, these can help you to bring down the costs of your private health insurance.  What's more, in certain circumstances, if you choose not to take out hospital cover, you may be required to pay an additional surcharge during tax time. Government initiatives you may qualify for include:

1.  Receiving a 30 percent Private Health Insurance Rebate (source – Businessweek)

2.  Lifetime Health Cover

3.  Medicare Levy Surcharge

Why the 30 Percent Rebate Saves You Money

Now a lot of people consider private health insurance as something only the wealthy can afford, with the 30 percent rebate in place, more people are finding it affordable.  Although premiums do rise because of inflation and other factors, the 30 percent rebate has made cover so much more affordable.  The premiums for private health funds vary based on the actual cost of health care and the kind of cover you need.

How the Medicare Levy Surcharge Works

The Medicare levy is 1.5 percent of a taxpayer’s income and is used to fund the Medicare System.  It is assessed to taxpayers who are without private hospital cover and fall into a certain income bracket.  The Medicare levy surcharge is 1 percent of taxable income and imposed on singles, couples, and families whose income exceeds the threshold and who don’t have the right amount of hospital insurance.

The easiest way to save money and avoid the surcharge altogether is to have a hospital cover policy that has been approved.  This hospital cover policy must be set up through a health insurer that is legally registered with $500 or less per year for single polices or $1,000 per year for couples and families, or just a low front-end deductible.

The Purpose of Lifetime Health Cover

Lifetime Health Cover applies to all residents born after 1 July 1934, and while not all funds offer such policies, you are likely to find one suitable for you. It sets your premium rating for life when you first take out private health insurance hospital cover. The sooner you take out hospital cover the better. If you do not have hospital cover by the 1st of July after your 31st birthday and instead wait to take out hospital cover later on in life, you will pay a 2% loading on top of your premium for every year you are aged over 30.  After loading Lifetime Health Cover onto your private hospital insurance continually for 10 years, the loading will be removed as long as you keep your hospital cover.

This is a guest post by financial writer Paul Groberts. 

How to Choose a Franchise Opportunity

(Photo credit: betsyweber)Starting a business from scratch sometimes can prove to be very difficult. You may be new to the business world and you may not have a clue where to start. Many people skip the whole process and look for a franchise to buy into. They feel that the extra hand holding and developed ideas can be a short cut to success. Jumping on the already established business model of an existing chain will get them where they want to be in a shorter period of time. 

When starting a new business from scratch or going the Franchises route the steps are some what similar.

1. There are many different franchise opportunities and with each there are different criteria and financial requirements. You need to pick a franchise that you can afford. Be sure to obtain a complete list of all franchise fees, taxes, licenses, payroll and employee benefits, for at least one year. Either have all necessary cash or financing ready to pay expenses for the first year because when becoming established, you may not make much income to pay all expense. Having a budget for the first year and seeking financial and accounting help in advance will help guarantee success.

2. Pick a franchise that matches your likes and goals. The first years will be difficult, having a franchise business that you enjoy will help you get through the tough times. When you are in a franchise that you do not particularly like but pick for the financial reward and it starts to have problems you may not be so motivated to see the process through.

3. Have marketing research done before putting any money down on a franchise. See if the area will support the business you are starting. Do you have the population and need for the franchise you are starting. Does the franchise have an appeal and provide something needed in the area? 

4. Visit other franchises owners. Talk to people who have already taken the steps you are about to take. Ask them about any possible problems that may come up. Ask them about the mistakes they made and what they learned from them. Even if you have to travel, this one tip is the most important because the people you talk to will help you make the final decision in pursuing this franchise business. Making this connection sets up a future friend/contact that you may later need for help or advice.

5. Review nationwide ratings on the franchise. The International Franchise Association is a trusted site for quality ratings on all franchise opportunities. Get as much information as possible about the franchiser's history, number of franchisees, support provided and the skills needed to run your franchise business using the franchiser's tools and training.

6. Compare different franchises in the business you would like to go in. Compare start up costs, expense and income information from more than one franchise in the niche you want to pursue. Check for different contingency's in the franchise disclosure documents. Find out what the procedures are for the different problems or circumstances the business may face.

Overall, go slow in the purchase of the franchise. Take all the time you need for full disclosure and planning.

How to Save Money on Car Insurance

 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)Car insurance can be a really expensive part of our lives. We have to have insurance for our life, car, boat, disability and home. Insurance companies must compete with each other so there are ways to get good deals . One of the ways is discounts.

If you have noticed, there seems to be a car insurance office on almost every corner. With all this competition, each office knows that to get your business they have to give you a good price and good service. Car insurance has it's share good discounts. But if your not aware of them you'll miss out on saving money.

Here are a few of the discounts available to you:

Vehicle Equipment

Air Bag

You could save up to 25% for driver side air bags and 40% for full front seat air bags. These discounts apply to the medical payments or pip portion of your car insurance premium.

Anti-lock Brake System

Does your car have a factory installed anti-lock brake system? You could receive a 5% discount on the collision portion of the premium.

Anti-theft System

Cars with a built in anti-theft system could earn a discount of up to 25% on the comprehensive portion of your premium.

Daytime Running Lights

Vehicles equipped with daylight running lights as standard equipment could earn you a 3% discount on certain car insurance coverages.

Driving History & Habits

Five Year Accident Free Good Driver

If your driving record is clear for five years you may save up to 26% on coverage.

Plus if your insurance company carries accident forgiveness, your rates won't go up.

Seat Belt Use

If you and your passengers always wear seat belts you could receive up to 15% off the medical or personal injury protection portion of your premium

Drivers Education

Defensive Driving Discounts

If you have completed a defensive driver education course you may be eligible for some discounts depending on the state where you live.

Driver's Education

If your a young driver and you have completed a drivers education course you may earn a discount on most coverages.

Good Student

Full time students with good grades can receive up to a 15% discount on their coverage.

Drivers Affiliation

Emergency Deployment

As a member of the armed forces fighting in wars overseas you are eligible for discounts of up to 25%.

Military

If your in the military on active duty, retired from the military, or a member of the National Guard or Reserves, you may be eligible of up to 15% of your premium.

Partnering Organizations

Some insurance companies have partnered up with various clubs and organizations to give discounts on your auto insurance premium.

Senior Level Federal Employees

If you have a senior-level job in the government, some companies give up to 8% discounts on your premium.

Customer Loyalty

Multi-Car

There is a discount if you insure more than one car on your policy and it may be up to a 25% discount.

Multi Policy/ Multi Line Discount

When you insure your car and also have your homeowners, renters, condo or mobile home policy with your car insurer you could get a discount.

Renewal Discount

For having multi year renewal with your insurer you can receive a loyalty discount.

With increasing demands on our incomes we must find ways to save some money. Make sure you have all the discounts coming to you that you qualify for. Today it's so easy to buy car insurance, there is an auto insurance store on every corner. With all the competition and discounts, the consumer wins. Why can't health insurance be bought so easily.?

With a little phone work and visiting your local car insurance office you will get a very satisfying deal. Go Here